Market analysis of electrode paste
1. Market Overview
This week, the mainstream price of China's electrode paste market rose by 200 yuan / ton, mainly because the high sulfur calcined coke in raw materials was stimulated by the continuous rise of price under cost pressure, and the market trading was OK. The high price of calcium carbide in the downstream market is mainly due to insufficient market supply. In particular, due to power restriction in Inner Mongolia and limited transportation in some areas in Northwest China, enterprises maintain low operating load and suppress electrode paste consumption.
2. Supply side
The supply of China's electrode paste market fell slightly this week, mainly because enterprises in South China are currently limited by power policies, the production capacity is reduced by nearly half, and the downstream receiving situation is also general. Most enterprises in Ningxia started normally, and some enterprises were under pressure due to environmental protection inspection, resulting in slow release of output; The overall start-up of enterprises in North China is high, and the shipment is good. Although the Inner Mongolia region is limited, the start-up is low, and the shipment is relatively good; At present, enterprises in Central China and Henan have started production well. Enterprises say that the price of raw materials is too high, the cost pressure is high, and the downstream receiving mood is not positive; At present, enterprises in Southwest China have difficulties in shipping, the actual transaction price is far lower than the mainstream market price, the cost side of enterprises is constantly under pressure, and the production enthusiasm is insufficient.
3. Raw materials
This week, the price of medium and high sulfur calcined coke in China continued to rise. As of today, the reference price is 4500 yuan / ton, up 11.11% month on week. The price of coal asphalt is rising due to the tight supply at the cost side. The ex factory reference of medium temperature asphalt is 5000-5300 yuan / ton. The price of electric calcined anthracite continues to be high due to the tight supply of raw materials, and the cost is good for the price of electrode paste.
4. demand side
This week, affected by power rationing in Inner Mongolia and transportation in Northwest China, China's calcium carbide enterprises still started at a low level, the market arrival volume was seriously insufficient, the calcium carbide price was high, the mainstream demand of the industry was weak, and the electrode paste enterprises were under pressure.
In view of the continuous pressure on the cost side of China's electrode paste enterprises and the general situation of downstream receiving goods, the process of enterprise negotiation on price rise is relatively slow, and the electrode paste enterprises continue to operate in the state of loss in the early stage. Even with the increase and rise frequency of raw material price higher than that of electrode paste, the mainstream loss degree of the industry continues to increase.
This week, the inventory of China's electrode paste Market decreased slightly, mainly because most enterprises maintained the orders of old customers, the shipment was relatively smooth, and the inventory was gradually released.
7. Future forecast
It is well supported by the cost price, but the resistance to high prices in the downstream is obvious. It is expected that the price of China's electrode paste will be stable and volatile in the short term, with limited increase, which is expected to be about 50-100 yuan / ton.